Template:Corona

Coronavirus pandemic or just panic

The current gamble seems to be to shut down the nation indefinitely to suppress a virus that is supposed to be especially deadly to some demographics and experts agree cannot be contained, only slowed.

By the Ides of March 2020 "More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to the country’s national health authority.”  

Average age of those that died are in their 80's and more than half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses. More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. 300,000 people die every year from obesity. 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year.

People seem to want to believe that if we merely quarantine sick people and those at risk, a “mitigation” strategy being used in Denmark, one computer model projects the U.S. death toll at about 2 million, again half from lack of ventilators, not depth of disease. But, the Hoover Institution's study and model, suggests “the total number of cases worldwide will peak out at well under one million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000″ which is near the annual death rate due to flu in the United States.

So, what is the truth?

The number of 17 to 25 million people making medical visits is certainly not the number of cases because most people do not rush to the doctor when they get the flu. The estimate of 38 to 54 million cases is based on those who will show symptoms of the flu and those who go to the doctor.
Coronavirus confirmed cases as of March 25 was 64,765 with 910 deaths (Death rate of 1.4%).
Since we know that half the people who get this Covid 19 flu show no symptoms and the half that do show symptoms only have mild to moderate symptoms, therefore, the true number of cases of people who have already had this flu and are now immune is likely more than the most conservative number of at least 129,000 people in America (Death rate .7%).
Until they can actually test for RNA of the virus or better the antigens that show you are now immune there is no way to actually know those already immune or if the numbers have already reached herd immunity. It is very possible a million people have already been exposed which would bring the death rate down to .09% or lower. The sharp drop of new cases in China with over a billion people is evidence this may be occurring.
Delaying herd immunity is not good but destroying the economic stability of millions of families may be worse.

Why the CDC does not accurately factor that into their estimates only they can say. We know that 95% of the people who contracted Poliovirus never showed symptoms so most people did not need the vaccination when it came out because they were already immune.

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Other links mentioned in the recording include Christian conflict | Herd immunity | Vaccines | Pure Religion | covetous practices | Merchandise | curse children | Socialism | "Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus.

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John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine, epidemiology, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

"If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from the Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths."

News from the Princess

Professor John Ioannidis's data might allow an estimated of a .3% death rate which contradicts Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson's data which everyone has been pushed to accept as gospel. But many of the studies admit there are data limitations.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship their laboratory tests were only PCR tests that were "conducted focusing on symptomatic cases especially at the early phase of the quarantine. If asymptomatic cases were missed as a result of this, it would mean we have underestimated the asymptomatic proportion."

The passengers and crew of the Diamond Princes were not a random sample but the passengers were mostly over 60, which may "lead to underestimation" of the natural true asymptomatic portion of society. Even with the high age factor the death rate onboard was only 0.5 percent or less. If anyone factored in that everyone under 40 including small children have generally produced a percentage of .2% The death rate comes closer to the estimate of Professor John Ioannidis.

We cannot forget those pre-existing conditions that account for the vast majority of cases that show symptoms are found generally in the older population.

So, it is reasonable, considering the track record of COVID-19, that the presence of symptoms "may correlate with other factors unrelated to age including prior health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and/or immunosuppression."

Reports from the Diamond Princess cruise ship should make it clear that the virus is highly contagious under ship conditions but we also know that many people, though they get the virus, show little or no symptoms. A "substantial fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals are asymptomatic" which had also been verified with higher numbers in a Japanese study.

Silent Cure

Anywhere from 80 percent of infections in adults to 95 percent of infections in children that are observed or detected appear to be mild to moderate cases overcome in about two weeks with rest at home. Since death rates are calculated only from those who get severely ill and are tested, we can assume the death rate from this virus is actually much lower. If we take in the high rate of asymptomatic individuals that we see in the Princess analysis and other broader examinations no one knows how many people or the rate they are being infected but recovering. That would preclude no one knows the actual death rate which seems far lower than some of the models.

As fast as it is spreading, we can assume that society is well on its way to "herd immunity" which the best way to reach maximum protection of society. A vaccine cannot do that and a quarantine of society only delays the natural process of the society obtaining.

So many people have likely been exposed and gotten better and are now immune. Why are we risking a wrecked economy and welfare expansions beyond FDR’s wildest dreams?

Richard Epstein at the Hoover Institution writes of serious flaws in predictions of 1 million or more Americans dead from coronavirus:

• “Clearly, the impact on elderly and immunocompromised individuals is severe, with nearly 90% of total deaths coming from individuals 60 and over. But these data do not call for shutting down all public and private facilities given the extraordinarily low rates of death in the population under 50.”
• “Of course, every life lost is a tragedy…but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies here that should apply in other cases... A Depression Will Ruin 330 Million Lives, Not 4 Million”

Victor Davis Hanson was a professor of classics at California State University, Fresno, and is currently the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He has been a visiting professor at Hillsdale College since 2004. He suggests that:

“[T]he massive curtailments of the U.S. economy can have as many health consequences as the virus itself—if millions lose income and jobs, become depressed in self-isolation, increase smoking, and drug and alcohol use, and postpone out of fear necessary buying and visits to doctors and hospitals for chronic and serious medical conditions unrelated to the virus...”

Backtracking

By March 26 after the world economy has almost shut down, millions of people unemployed, hundreds of thousands of people losing their business and suffering hardships, increase in suicides, the list goes on but now Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson is now downgrading his original estimates for many of the same reasons we have already shared on the network. At this time he has reduced the dead from 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. Now, this epidemiologist says to the British government that hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist the day before.

Ferguson would eventually backtrack on his downgraded prediction saying that the new numbers are only the result of social spacing and the shutdown. This, of course, contradicts what he said about the numbers revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Ferguson stated when he lowered his estimates to a fraction of the original numbers and stated, “What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes... we should have been looking at previously.”

The "early data in China" did not factor in the asymptotic people that included more than half of the passengers on the cruise ship the Diamond Princess nor have they considered the millions of people with symptoms so mild or moderate they never thought they had this particular flu.

Professor Gupta with a research team at Oxford suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19. We were telling people on the network and those listen to our Podcasts weeks ago based on all the reports that were coming out before the government began to shut down the economy and the media began to panic the lemmings of society.

So have the governments of the world failed to listen to all the expert analysts that were giving drastically different numbers? as the media struck fear in the people to cause panic among the people? Or is their more to these events than what the people have been told? Did some people seize the opportunity to use this virus to cover the movement of trillions of dollars, the expansion of government powers, the doubling of the national debt, and to test the people resistance to martial law? Are they done? Or is their more to come?

Delaying herd immunity

Should we be delaying herd immunity by the drastic economic shutdown being imposed by the government?

“Graham Medley from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who chairs a group of scientists who model the spread of infectious diseases and advise the government on pandemic responses, says that the actual goal is the same as that of other countries: flatten the curve by staggering the onset of infections. As a consequence, the nation may achieve herd immunity; it's a side effect, not an aim.”

But according to Thomas House, “The current coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19 [2020-03-14 ]) has raised questions about herd immunity, social distancing measures, and the relationship between these.” “In fact, the later intervention dramatically reduces the burden on the healthcare system, cutting in half the maximum numbers ill and potentially needing treatment at any one time, and significantly reduces the final number infected, which the earlier interventions fail to do.”

“The reason that this happens is that social distancing measures do not lead to herd immunity, so once they are lifted the epidemic starts again.”

The Test

David Crowe, an expert in global infections such as SARS, Ebola, and flu), sees the coronavirus panic is an irrational panic, based on an unproven RNA test called “polymerase chain reaction” (PCR).

• "The coronavirus test is based on PCR, a manufacturing technique. When used as a test, it does not produce a positive/negative result, but simply the number of cycles required to detect genetic material. The division between positive and negative is an arbitrary number of cycles chosen by the testers. If positive means infected and negative means uninfected, then there are cases of people going from infected to uninfected and back to infected again in a couple of days."
• "The world is suffering from a massive delusion based on the belief that a test for RNA is a test for a deadly new virus... but that is not proof that the RNA is from a virus. Without purification and characterization of virus particles, it cannot be accepted that an RNA test is proof that a virus is present."

A new scientific paper (citation) that calculated the false positive rate with the PCR Test for asymptomatic patients at 80%! The data is little more than a guess and the statics tell you nothing since so many people without symptoms or mild cases are never even tested with any test nor counted when estimating death rates.

Everyone wants to believe testing settles the issue as to being infected or not. An accurate dependable test that is virus-specific is still in development. Without purification and characterization of virus particles of the RNA there is no proof that a virus is present. The common PCR test (polymerase chain reaction) gives many false positives and is not RNA specific. If your sick stay home, avoid contact, treat as most flu infection or call your health provider.

Where is wisdom

Why are so many willing to plunge the nation, and even the world, into a depression that kills many businesses and shoves millions onto welfare for what could be the next several generations?

Banks are closing their doors, changing their rules, removing longstanding safeguards and controls. Cash is more frowned upon because it might carry a virus while the "printing presses" are fired up ushering in a future of inflation and a virtual cashless society.

Millions more will be transformed from productive workers to bitter takers, causing a faster implosion of our already mathematically impossible welfare state. In the subsequent depression, many people may die due to poverty, and despair with suicide rates and crime rising even higher.